The Blank Swan: The End of Probability. Elie Ayache

The Blank Swan: The End of Probability

ISBN: 9780470725221 | 496 pages | 13 Mb

Download The Blank Swan: The End of Probability

The Blank Swan: The End of Probability Elie Ayache
Publisher: Wiley

Jul 20, 2010 - According to Bloomberg, Taleb spent many years asserting that bankers were becoming blind to black swans (also known as tail-end risks, named for the outliers in a the oft-used bell curve) and looking back instead of forward, obscuring their view of future market changes. In the end, the authors have clearly demonstrated that they do not care about biology, medicine or rational risk analysis. In addition to past observations that fall at the far end of the curve (“tails”), it is always possible to have a new observation that deviates even further from past results. May 4, 2014 - One of the authors is statistician Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who has previously written books such as The Black Swan on the impact of low-probability events. The other two authors are physicist Yaneer Bar-Yam, and politician-philosopher Rupert Read. Feb 7, 2011 - Fractal models of probabilities can't predict the impact of the Black Swan, but they can give a slight hint, making a Black Swan Gray. Aug 24, 2010 - This is getting very complicated – may I suggest to read Elie Ayach's “The Blank Swan: The End of Probability” or an older book by Vovk and Shafer before considering global strategic games we all play. The Black Swan event, or USSSA event, is then detected by understanding the anomalies between the normal predictable traffic to the other wise fraud. They have negligible knowledge of molecular biology, plant breeding and genetic engineering. The current stock market environment also that not all returns fit nicely into this model. Instead, a coordinated attack on utilities that destroys expensive infrastructure and results in widespread blackouts could very well be a high-probability event, given the industry's lack of preparedness. The realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance and technology; The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities) Be it PBX fraud or mobile fraud, the end consumer will need to pay the bill at the end. Jun 14, 2007 - Saturday's OASIS discussion on probabilities in trading provide a great follow-up opportunity to discuss the downside of applying probability analysis into trading—low probability market events that can eat you alive. Mar 12, 2014 - The potential threat has already moved beyond the realm of the Black Swan, the term used to describe extremely rare, but highly consequential events that are difficult to anticipate and can result in truly catastrophic outcomes. He was vindicated—but surely Past economic patterns can be (and are) analyzed endlessly and used to create probability models for the future. Apr 7, 2007 - You need to ask, “If the Black Swan hits me, will it help me or hurt me?” You cannot figure out the probability of a Black Swan hitting.

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